Try to deploy a winform using clickonce by manually.
1. Create application must check "Enable ClickOnce Security Settings". if not, when installing process, it will show "+ Reference in the manifest does not match the identity of the downloaded assembly " error
2. Must using same certificates sign application manifest and deployment manifest
3. please be noted the application menifest path when you using mageUI.exe choice application manifest.
it will show "location: ....." if has sub directory, you must put deployment manifest(*.applicaion) out of this sub directory, else it will show "*.exe.manifest could not be found 404 error" when you try to install.
4. using mageUI.exe I always uncheck "include start location(providerURL) in the manifest". because I checked this one, it always show "403 error".
references: http://www.codeproject.com/KB/install/ClickOnceDeploymentNoIDE.aspx